Geek Predictions For 2012

2011 is now just a distant memory, which means it's time to once again for that look into my geek crystal ball to see what lies ahead for 2012 in the world of technology.

1. DVD's fade to black: No other consumer video format was adopted by consumers like DVD was in the late 1990's.  In just a few years after introduction in 1997, VHS was a chapter in the history of consumer electronics.  Like VHS before, DVD's are already getting pushed aside by Blu-Ray, video on demand, and Netflix.  Disney already re-releases many of their classic animated films on BluRay a month to six weeks before DVD.  Many retail have more shelf space devoted to BluRay than DVD.  2012 this won't just continue but accelerate. 

2. Cellular startups consolidate:  After a year an a half after launching, Wind Mobile, Mobilicity, and Public Mobile have not seen the subscriber growth that the fledgling cellular carriers were expecting, and now mounting debt have lead to rumours that start up carriers were negotiating a merger deal.  To build their networks to bring their services to more potential subscribers, the upstart carriers will need to secure more financing
If the current startup cellular carriers hope to secure any of the recently opened 700 MHz band they will need access to even more money, to bid in the upcoming auctions. Currently Wind Mobile and Mobilicity don't have access to that much money without merging.

3. RIM merges or sings their swan song: As 2011 draws to a close runours abound that Research In Motion is a candidate to be bought out or at the very least merging with another handset maker. Declining marketshare, failures of their popular messaging products and threats by foreign governments to shut down access to RIM's popular messaging services have taken their toll on RIM

4. Windows Phone finally grows their audience:  Microsoft's struggle to get market share for Windows Phone 7 comes to an end in 2012 when smartphones running Windows Phone 7 for next generation LTE cellular networks debut early in the year.  While Android powered the first LTE smartphones many were watching the race for second place.  With no LTE iPhones or Blackberries anywhere in sight Microsoft has an opportunity to break into mobile that they never had before.  Microsoft's has credibility in the corporate world that Google simply doesn't have

5. Android tablets start gaining market share: In just a couple years Apple's iPad has dominated the tablet market they created. HP's touch pad was discontinued and remaining stock was sold off at a fire sale price less than two months after introduction. RIM's playbook hasn't fared much better. Tablets running Google's Android from dozens of manufacturers have come into the market for half of the price of an iPad. The lower price hasn't translated into a competitive advantage for the Android tablets. With Apple sticking to LCD based display technology, manufacturers of Android tablets will need to look OLED screen technology to bring better battery life and a thiner tablet to provide that competitive advantage that they need. With Apple continuing pass on LTE, Faster 4G cellular Internet access could provide that competitive advantage that gives the Android tablets a bigger piece of the tablet market pie.

Windows Phone 7: When Can Canadians Get Theirs

For those potential smartphone subscribers looking for an alternative to Blackberries, iPhones, and Android phones in the Great White North, Windows Phone 7 the smartphone operating system from Microsoft that is being watched with some interest by technology industry journalists and analysts launches on November 8th will be available in Canada on the Launch day through the big three cellco's Telus, Rogers, and Bell.

For subscribers on Wind Mobile and Mobilicity there will be a little bit of a wait, while the models launching on T-Mobile in the states will work on Wind and Mobilicity, the startup cell carriers will need to make deals with Microsoft and handset manufacturers before they can offer Windows phone 7.

For those on Sasktel there will be a wait for six months to a year, their new HSPA network supports the same Windows Phone 7 handsets that Telus, Rogers and Bell offer, the big national carriers will have short term exclusivity agreements with handset manufacturers to carry those phones.

Subscribers on MTS and Public Mobile are out of luck for a year or more.  Microsoft has chosen not support CDMA in Windows Phone 7.  Support for CDMA is supposed to be added sometime in the end of 2011, depending if handset manufacturers choose to make CDMA phones with Windows Phone 7 will remain to be seen.

When Will The Blackbery Torch Launch in Canada?

Research In Motion, having just announced a new Blackberry, a new model called the Torch launching on AT&T on 12th, now technology analysts and journalists north of the border are wondering when the new Blackberry will be available in Canada and with which carrier.

The Torch is a GSM/UMTS/HSPA smartphone which means that it will not be available on MTS or Public Mobile.  It doesn't support Advanced Wireless Spectrum so Wind Mobile and Mobilicity won't be able to offer the Torch ether.  That leaves the incumbent national carriers, Rogers, Bell and Telus.  For Bell and Telus offering the Torch would let both carriers to retire CDMA based blackberries such as the Storm and the Tour.  For Rogers offering the Torch will help re-establish the reputation that Rogers had as Canada's Blackberry leader.

One of Canada's smaller regional carrier has a special interest in offering the Blackberry Torch,  Sasktel will be relaunching their network using UMTS/HSPA about the time that the Blackberry Torch is going to launch.  So far Sasktel's HSPA phone line up is pretty limited, With Blackberry Bold and Pearl that are the same that Rogers offers, There are a few Nokia models as well.  That's about as interesting as Sasktel's CDMA phone linup which is limited and sucky at best.

The smart bet is that there will be at least two national carriers, I would suspect Telus and Rogers are the most likely to land the Torch.  It would be highly unlikely that Research In Motion will enter into an exclusive agreement with a carrier.  Learning the lession from how the Palm Pre died in Canada because of only being available on Bell.  RIM needs to successful with the Blackberry Torch to claw back some market share lost to the iPhone and Android.  Fragmenting down to subscribers of just one carrier would be counterproductive to that goal.

GSM Droid Confirmed For Germany, Canada Next?

Since the official announcement of Motorola's Droid launch on Verizon there have been rumours of a Droid for GSM networks will be surfacing soon.  O2 Germany and Motorola have confirmed that the GSM version of the Droid dubbed the Milestone will be available on November 9th.  While this doesn't mean anything for Americans on AT&T or T-Mobile because of Motorola's exclusivity agreement with Verizon, Canadians will have a reason to hope that it's no longer a question of if the Droid will come to the Great White North but when.

The Droid coming to GSM means that Rogers will be able to offer the phone as well as CDMA carriers Telus and Bell.  The CDMA Droid is most likely to end up with Telus because most of the models of phones that Verizon carries get carried by Telus.  Bell on the other hand carries Sprint's phone lineup.  Having a GSM version of the Droid means that Rogers can and will offer the Droid to Canadians.

The GSM version of the Droid will also be HSPA network compatible so that Telus or Bell could offer the GSM/HSPA version of the Droid to get expected data hungry customers that the Droid would attract onto their new networks, while Voice call users would stay on CDMA.  While this may be a good way to manage their wireless networks, won't be a good move to provide service to those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan since the only networks that aren't owned by Rogers are CDMA only.  The best way for Telus to offer a national launch of the Droid is to pick up the CDMA version. (Subscribers of MTS and SaskTel are out of luck on this one since these regional carriers carry the phones the big carriers don't want anymore.)

Forbidding some kind of exclusivity agreement with one carrier can and should give Canadians choice of cellular carrier.  Not just now but in the future when the new carriers, Wind Mobile, DAVE Wireless and Public Mobile launch their cell phone services next year.  This oddly reminds me of ten years ago when people could flock to Bell, Rogers, Telus, Clearnet or Fido to get a Motorola StarTac.  Times change but sometimes what's old can become new again.

What Phones Will The New Cell Carriers Provide?

In four to twelve months from now Canadians will have three new cell phone carriers to choose from. Wind Communications (aka Globalive), DAVE wireless, and Public Mobile will enter the market hoping to pull subscribers away from Bell, Rogers, Telus and a few regional carriers. The startup carriers are promising better value by dumping fees charged by the traditional carriers. Network coverage will be leave a lot to be desired at first but as the new networks build out coverage will improve. But one of the most important things that people take into consideration when choosing a cell carrier is the selection of phones a carrier offers. Having many cool phones will be one of the most important things that the companies entering Canada's cellular industry will need to attract subscribers. Since all the new cell carriers all intend to use GSM as the technology that all the new carriers will build their networks on speculating on which phones will be offered is somewhat easier.

Blackberries: In Canada it's the Blackberry that is the king of the smart phones, even Virgin Mobile offers Blackberries to prepaid customers. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect versions of the Bold and the Curve for the new carriers at launch. Any new GSM Blackberry models in a year from now will practically be guaranteed to provided by one of the new carriers.

Google Android: With a dozen different handset manufacturers getting ready to launch Android based smartphones it would be a pretty safe bet that the new carriers will have at least one Android phone each.

Microsoft Danger Sidekick: The consistently popular smartphone jr. with tweens and teens that has never been able to crack the Canadian market will finally have a chance to come North of the border with one of the new cell phone carriers.

Palm WebOS: While Bell Mobility is offering the Pre exclusively to their subscribers in eastern Canada, Palm is promising a GSM based smartphone which will probably will launch with one of the new cell providers first, if Rogers doesn't nab it first.

Nokia: The world leading maker of cellular handsets that almost went extinct in North America several years will probably use the launches of the new cell phone carriers to get a foothold back into the Canadian market. Expect the offerings for basic cell phones to contain at least a few Nokias. Nokia's version of the smartphone running the symbian operating system, probably not likely to be seen.

Expect Samsungs, LGs and Motorolas to be represented in the phone lineups by the new carriers but can there be any surprises when the new carriers launch their phone lineups I think so.