Geek Predictions For 2012

2011 is now just a distant memory, which means it's time to once again for that look into my geek crystal ball to see what lies ahead for 2012 in the world of technology.

1. DVD's fade to black: No other consumer video format was adopted by consumers like DVD was in the late 1990's.  In just a few years after introduction in 1997, VHS was a chapter in the history of consumer electronics.  Like VHS before, DVD's are already getting pushed aside by Blu-Ray, video on demand, and Netflix.  Disney already re-releases many of their classic animated films on BluRay a month to six weeks before DVD.  Many retail have more shelf space devoted to BluRay than DVD.  2012 this won't just continue but accelerate. 

2. Cellular startups consolidate:  After a year an a half after launching, Wind Mobile, Mobilicity, and Public Mobile have not seen the subscriber growth that the fledgling cellular carriers were expecting, and now mounting debt have lead to rumours that start up carriers were negotiating a merger deal.  To build their networks to bring their services to more potential subscribers, the upstart carriers will need to secure more financing
If the current startup cellular carriers hope to secure any of the recently opened 700 MHz band they will need access to even more money, to bid in the upcoming auctions. Currently Wind Mobile and Mobilicity don't have access to that much money without merging.

3. RIM merges or sings their swan song: As 2011 draws to a close runours abound that Research In Motion is a candidate to be bought out or at the very least merging with another handset maker. Declining marketshare, failures of their popular messaging products and threats by foreign governments to shut down access to RIM's popular messaging services have taken their toll on RIM

4. Windows Phone finally grows their audience:  Microsoft's struggle to get market share for Windows Phone 7 comes to an end in 2012 when smartphones running Windows Phone 7 for next generation LTE cellular networks debut early in the year.  While Android powered the first LTE smartphones many were watching the race for second place.  With no LTE iPhones or Blackberries anywhere in sight Microsoft has an opportunity to break into mobile that they never had before.  Microsoft's has credibility in the corporate world that Google simply doesn't have

5. Android tablets start gaining market share: In just a couple years Apple's iPad has dominated the tablet market they created. HP's touch pad was discontinued and remaining stock was sold off at a fire sale price less than two months after introduction. RIM's playbook hasn't fared much better. Tablets running Google's Android from dozens of manufacturers have come into the market for half of the price of an iPad. The lower price hasn't translated into a competitive advantage for the Android tablets. With Apple sticking to LCD based display technology, manufacturers of Android tablets will need to look OLED screen technology to bring better battery life and a thiner tablet to provide that competitive advantage that they need. With Apple continuing pass on LTE, Faster 4G cellular Internet access could provide that competitive advantage that gives the Android tablets a bigger piece of the tablet market pie.

RIM Playbook 4G Could Be Rare In Canada

At the recent Consumer Electronics Show, and just about everywhere else RIM has showed it, the Playbook RIM's answer to Apple's iPad is a surprise hit.  The Playbook launches from their position as a maker of smartphones that have traditionally appealed to the corporate world into a company that makes general consumer electronics. Just like the iPad the entry level model will get online through WiFi only, but unlike Apple's high end iPad with 3G connectivity, RIM's upper end Playbook can get online there's a 4G connection through Sprint's WiMax network.

For the vast majority of potential users who do not yet have access to any 4G service the Playbook can be WiFi tethered to Blackberry smartphone or a MiFi personal hotspot to access 3G service.  A rather cumbersome work around to get connected outside the limited areas covered by 4G service.  

For those in the Great White North looking to get a Playbook, it's already looking like it will be a better idea to save your pennies and go with the WiFi only model.  WiMax service only available in popular cottaging areas North of Toronto, and some ski resorts in Alberta and BC.  WiMax provider Inukshuk Wireless, a partnership between Rogers & Bell hasn't built out into most densely populated areas, owing any WiMax device may make any buyer regret spending the money very quickly.

Now that Rogers and Bell have stated intentions of building LTE networks, the makes any expansion of Inukshuk unlikely at best.  That will mean that waiting for a future Playbook with onboard 3G or LTE support for those Canadians, especially those in Manitoba (MTS) and Saskatchewan (Sasktel) who will not be getting WiMax at all, who don't wish to be bothered with tethering with a Blackberry.

What Phones Will The New Cell Carriers Provide?

In four to twelve months from now Canadians will have three new cell phone carriers to choose from. Wind Communications (aka Globalive), DAVE wireless, and Public Mobile will enter the market hoping to pull subscribers away from Bell, Rogers, Telus and a few regional carriers. The startup carriers are promising better value by dumping fees charged by the traditional carriers. Network coverage will be leave a lot to be desired at first but as the new networks build out coverage will improve. But one of the most important things that people take into consideration when choosing a cell carrier is the selection of phones a carrier offers. Having many cool phones will be one of the most important things that the companies entering Canada's cellular industry will need to attract subscribers. Since all the new cell carriers all intend to use GSM as the technology that all the new carriers will build their networks on speculating on which phones will be offered is somewhat easier.

Blackberries: In Canada it's the Blackberry that is the king of the smart phones, even Virgin Mobile offers Blackberries to prepaid customers. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect versions of the Bold and the Curve for the new carriers at launch. Any new GSM Blackberry models in a year from now will practically be guaranteed to provided by one of the new carriers.

Google Android: With a dozen different handset manufacturers getting ready to launch Android based smartphones it would be a pretty safe bet that the new carriers will have at least one Android phone each.

Microsoft Danger Sidekick: The consistently popular smartphone jr. with tweens and teens that has never been able to crack the Canadian market will finally have a chance to come North of the border with one of the new cell phone carriers.

Palm WebOS: While Bell Mobility is offering the Pre exclusively to their subscribers in eastern Canada, Palm is promising a GSM based smartphone which will probably will launch with one of the new cell providers first, if Rogers doesn't nab it first.

Nokia: The world leading maker of cellular handsets that almost went extinct in North America several years will probably use the launches of the new cell phone carriers to get a foothold back into the Canadian market. Expect the offerings for basic cell phones to contain at least a few Nokias. Nokia's version of the smartphone running the symbian operating system, probably not likely to be seen.

Expect Samsungs, LGs and Motorolas to be represented in the phone lineups by the new carriers but can there be any surprises when the new carriers launch their phone lineups I think so.