Geek Predictions For 2012

2011 is now just a distant memory, which means it's time to once again for that look into my geek crystal ball to see what lies ahead for 2012 in the world of technology.

1. DVD's fade to black: No other consumer video format was adopted by consumers like DVD was in the late 1990's.  In just a few years after introduction in 1997, VHS was a chapter in the history of consumer electronics.  Like VHS before, DVD's are already getting pushed aside by Blu-Ray, video on demand, and Netflix.  Disney already re-releases many of their classic animated films on BluRay a month to six weeks before DVD.  Many retail have more shelf space devoted to BluRay than DVD.  2012 this won't just continue but accelerate. 

2. Cellular startups consolidate:  After a year an a half after launching, Wind Mobile, Mobilicity, and Public Mobile have not seen the subscriber growth that the fledgling cellular carriers were expecting, and now mounting debt have lead to rumours that start up carriers were negotiating a merger deal.  To build their networks to bring their services to more potential subscribers, the upstart carriers will need to secure more financing
If the current startup cellular carriers hope to secure any of the recently opened 700 MHz band they will need access to even more money, to bid in the upcoming auctions. Currently Wind Mobile and Mobilicity don't have access to that much money without merging.

3. RIM merges or sings their swan song: As 2011 draws to a close runours abound that Research In Motion is a candidate to be bought out or at the very least merging with another handset maker. Declining marketshare, failures of their popular messaging products and threats by foreign governments to shut down access to RIM's popular messaging services have taken their toll on RIM

4. Windows Phone finally grows their audience:  Microsoft's struggle to get market share for Windows Phone 7 comes to an end in 2012 when smartphones running Windows Phone 7 for next generation LTE cellular networks debut early in the year.  While Android powered the first LTE smartphones many were watching the race for second place.  With no LTE iPhones or Blackberries anywhere in sight Microsoft has an opportunity to break into mobile that they never had before.  Microsoft's has credibility in the corporate world that Google simply doesn't have

5. Android tablets start gaining market share: In just a couple years Apple's iPad has dominated the tablet market they created. HP's touch pad was discontinued and remaining stock was sold off at a fire sale price less than two months after introduction. RIM's playbook hasn't fared much better. Tablets running Google's Android from dozens of manufacturers have come into the market for half of the price of an iPad. The lower price hasn't translated into a competitive advantage for the Android tablets. With Apple sticking to LCD based display technology, manufacturers of Android tablets will need to look OLED screen technology to bring better battery life and a thiner tablet to provide that competitive advantage that they need. With Apple continuing pass on LTE, Faster 4G cellular Internet access could provide that competitive advantage that gives the Android tablets a bigger piece of the tablet market pie.

RIM Playbook 4G Could Be Rare In Canada

At the recent Consumer Electronics Show, and just about everywhere else RIM has showed it, the Playbook RIM's answer to Apple's iPad is a surprise hit.  The Playbook launches from their position as a maker of smartphones that have traditionally appealed to the corporate world into a company that makes general consumer electronics. Just like the iPad the entry level model will get online through WiFi only, but unlike Apple's high end iPad with 3G connectivity, RIM's upper end Playbook can get online there's a 4G connection through Sprint's WiMax network.

For the vast majority of potential users who do not yet have access to any 4G service the Playbook can be WiFi tethered to Blackberry smartphone or a MiFi personal hotspot to access 3G service.  A rather cumbersome work around to get connected outside the limited areas covered by 4G service.  

For those in the Great White North looking to get a Playbook, it's already looking like it will be a better idea to save your pennies and go with the WiFi only model.  WiMax service only available in popular cottaging areas North of Toronto, and some ski resorts in Alberta and BC.  WiMax provider Inukshuk Wireless, a partnership between Rogers & Bell hasn't built out into most densely populated areas, owing any WiMax device may make any buyer regret spending the money very quickly.

Now that Rogers and Bell have stated intentions of building LTE networks, the makes any expansion of Inukshuk unlikely at best.  That will mean that waiting for a future Playbook with onboard 3G or LTE support for those Canadians, especially those in Manitoba (MTS) and Saskatchewan (Sasktel) who will not be getting WiMax at all, who don't wish to be bothered with tethering with a Blackberry.

What RIM Will Need To Do To Sell The 'BlackPad'

Research In Motion, Canada's smartphone pioneer and current market leader showing that they are not going to let Apple eat their lunch, is launching a new version of their operating system and launching new models of blackberries, and according to recent rumours preparing a tablet computer similar to the iPad.  Already dubbed the 'BlackPad' the tablet from RIM will have a challenge ahead of it going head to head against Apple's iPad.  The tablet market is pretty young which will make it easy for a RIM tablet to get a foothold with both businesses and consumers.  There's a few things RIM can do to make the 'BlackPad' tablet a hit.

1. Price it below the competitor: While the iPad is the current tablet that is the hot gadget, it takes at least 550 dollars just to buy one.  If RIM can get the price down under 400 dollars then that's what it could take to get consumers to rethink getting an iPad. In order to be a successful competitor to the iPad, the Blackpad will have to be the first competitor to the iPad.  There are already are tablets running Google's Android operating system on the way to the market and their manufacturers will undercut the iPad, RIM will need to get in fast and inexpensive.

2. Embrace CDMA: Even though many consider CDMA to be a technology that has one foot in the grave, since Canada will only have cell carrier, MTS that will be CDMA only by the end of 2010. Stateside both Verizon and Sprint will be at least two years away from widespread deployments of their 4G technologies.  Their combined base of 120 million subscribers have been green with Apple envy since the launch of the original iPhone.  Being able to use a RIM tablet with the 3G service they already subscribe to makes the iPad less attractive to subscribers on Verizon or Sprint.

3. Do Flash:  Apple's well known cat fight with Adobe over flash has left users of iPads, iPhones and iPod touches unable to use features on most web sites.  If the 'BlackPad' does flash then that opens up all the videos on YouTube, all the shows on Hulu and just about every video and animation on  the web. 

4. Don't forget the corporate world:  Blackberry has enjoyed a stranglehold in the corporate world, while the stranglehold has eroded somewhat since the introducion of the iPhone RIM can still use that stranglehold to sell the 'BlackPad' Features to make the Blackpad attractive to corporate users just have to be there.

Despite the popularity of the iPad, Research In Motion can and will find their place in the tablet market because of it's small size.  The tablet market will be open to all players large and small.  Apple was first RIM is coming in next.