Monday, December 7, 2009

2009 Prognostications Redux

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The close of 2009 just a few weeks away, it's time once again to check up on predictions I made last year at this time and see how accurate my digital clairvoyance really was, so here's what I thought was going to happen in 2009 and what actually did happen:

1. Handset makers start dumping Windows Mobile and go to Google Android

On this one I get half a mark, while handset manufacturers and cell carriers have started to adopt Android, nobody has dropped Windows Mobile yet, that could still come in 2010.  Windows Mobile 6.5 was released to tepid reviews and Microsoft promises that Windows Mobile 7 will be better, Microsoft had better deliver.  Android will be seen by handset manufacturers as what they need to compete against Apple's iPhone.

2. Canadian cell phone carriers start marketing blitz in advance of arrival of competition

I wouldn't exactly call what the cell carriers have done to get ready for new competition as a marketing blitz, Canada's incumbent cellular carriers have dropped the system access fee on new cell phone accounts which is a good thing, Bell and Telus have started their change over from CDMA to GSM/HSPA which is another good thing because it moves Canada to a single standard system for Cellular communications, which is another good thing because it allows an unlocked phone to be used on any network. The cell carriers have gone and cried foul to the CRTC about the ownership structure of one of the new competitive carriers Wind Mobile, their decicion delays their launch well into 2010.  The incumbents have also gone after each other about their advertising claims this is another bad thing for subscribers, because the costs of all lawsuit damage rewards are ultimately will get passed down to you know who: cell phone subscribers.

3. Yahoo Fire Sale

This one is one I'm glad I got wrong, Yahoo getting bought up and sold off would have been a tragic end of one of the Internet's pioneering brands. A search deal with Microsoft is already threating to kill Yahoo's core product, web search.  The future of Yahoo as just an online media company will be uncertain at best.  This is a story that will conclude in 2010.

4. Apathy towards Windows 7 gains momentum

This is the prediction that I was the most wrong about.  Those who had to endure Windows Vista jumped over to Windows 7 in large numbers.  The Windows XP hold outs are making the switch as well.  2010 will be finally be the year the corporate IT community finally makes a switch to another operating system.  Windows 7, Mac OS X or something else. 

Half marks on a couple of predictions and complete wrong on a couple more shows that 2009 was an eventful year in tech, just as 2010 promises to be.  Stay tuned for the predictions for 2010.

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