"Digital Prognostication for 2008"
1. Bands leave recording companies to distribute direct to fans
I thought that online music distribution and retailing had come to a point that singers and bands could sell direct fans while escaping the bondage of the recording industry. Radiohead may have blazed a new trail but few dared to follow. I totally struck out on that one!
2. WiMax deployment begins, Municipal WiFi dies a quiet death
This is one that I got right. The first consumer broadband service using WiMax was deployed in Baltimore. In the past year less was said about Municipal WiFi than last year.
3. Adoption of Windows Vista continues to flounder even after Service Pack 1 drops
This one was dead on. Service Pack 1 for Windows Vista came and went and attitudes about Windows Vista stayed the same. Even with the improvements that Service Pack 1 brought, corporate IT departments are still avoiding Windows Vista. It is now estimated that there are as many corporate desktop systems running Windows Vista as there are running Windows 98.
4. Dot-com bubble II
This one was as wrong as wrong could be. I expected that Social Networking would be next big thing that venture capitalists would try to make money from. With the metaphorical belly flop that the economy took in 2008 startup money disappeared and layoffs in many small web sites came about.
That's how I saw 2008, a couple of dead on hits and a couple of wide misses. What's in the crystal ball for 2009? Stay Tuned
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