2010 Technology Predictions

Now that the end of 2009 is just days away it's time to look ahead to 2010 to see what will happen with our gadgets, computers and in the online world. 

1.  Beginning of the end of CDMA: Code Division Multiple Access the technology used by about half of the cell phones in North America is going to start heading towards the end days.  Bell and Telus have already started to replace their CDMA networks with networks using GSM/HSPA technology.  Verizon Wireless the largest CDMA cell operator is already planning a migration to a 4G technology known as Long Term Evolution or LTE starting in 2010. 

2.  No iPhone on Verizon this year: The biggest rumor about Apple's iPhone is when it will be available on a carrier other than AT&T in the United States.  There have been a lot of gossip that Apple is developing a CDMA based iPhone for use on Verizon Wireless.  With Verizon's iDont and Land of lost toys commericals pretty fresh in the minds at Apple, it's likely that things have soured between Verizon and Apple that Apple isn't going to make the investment to make an iPhone for Verizon's CDMA network when the exclusivity agreement with AT&T expires at the end of 2010.  It is far more likely that Apple doesn't see the point in sinking millions of dollars into research and development when Verizon is going to deploying LTE to replace CDMA in 2011.  This it not to say that there will never be an iPhone on Verizon.  AT&T is going to be deploying LTE at about the same time as Verizon.  Expect to see an LTE based iPhone in about two or three years from now on Verizon and AT&T.

3.  Palm offers WebOS based GSM smartphones: The Palm Pre the darling of the cell industry for a few months at the beginning of 2009 will break away the shackles of being a CDMA only device.  Since Verizon, Google and Motorola stole Palm's thunder with the Droid, Palm will need something big to survive.  Originally choosing Sprint as the carrier for the Pre didn't help things one bit so Palm will need to make their phones available to every carrier under the sun.  That means bringing out a GSM based Pre and Pixi to offer through AT&T, T-Mobile, Rogers, and Telus.

4.  Facebook IPO:  Social Networking has been something speculated to be something big enough to invest in.  The major media companies have invested in a big way.  News Corporation bought Myspace, Google bought Orkut, and AOL bought Bebo.  Soon people will be able to invest in the biggest name in social networking: Facebook.  Speculation about Facebook going public have been going around since Facebook created two classes of shares current owned by the owners of Facebook back in October.  After Facebook goes for sale on the stock market, so will developers of facebook applications, and let the next bubble inflate.

Google's Android, What does it mean for the Cell Phone Industry

A prototype of Google's Android operating system for cell phones was shown off at a recent trade show in Spain. Many expect Android to be the iPhone killer especially CDMA carriers who have seen customers defecting to AT&T to get an iPhone. Selling the Mobile phone operating system to cell phone manufacturers and cell carriers will give Google a revenue source from an actual product instead of advertising.

Those who should shake in their boots are Microsoft whose Windows Mobile operating system hasn't exactly the mobile world on fire and Palm the PDA pioneer turned fledgling smartphone maker whose best days are long past. Both companies are getting new competition from a new offering that is cheaper and has more capabilities.

Unlikely unaffected will be Research in Motion because Blackberry is so very entrenched in the corporate world and in the halls of power their users are so loyal they won't even consider switching to something else.

So where does this leave Apple, Android promises to bring iPhone type capabilities to phones made by other companies on all cell phone carriers. The fanboys who are replicating faster than tribbles will always carry iPhones.

We have so far since the days of the StarTac 3000 which I was using up until a couple of years ago.

Telus Mobility Considers Technology Change

It's being reported that Canadian cell phone carrier, Telus Mobility is considering converting their current CDMA network over to GSM. This would make Telus only the second carrier to use GSM. This would effectively would end the GSM Monopoly that Rogers Wireless currently has. This would or should mean that travelers to Canada would pay cheaper roaming rates. With less than two years until the Vancouver Winter Olympics, Telus would have to move fast to get cash in on foreign athletes and media and the thousands of their cell phones.

The most conservative estimate of the cost of a network technology change is 500 million dollars, which would mean having to sign up a lot of new customers just to save money on carrier subsidized phones. Even though the newest cell phone come out on the market using GSM first 500 million is lot just to launch the iPhone in Canada.

Even though 500 million for what may seem a minimal benefit, there may seem to be a hidden motive to migrate, Using a competing technology would help make a take over of Telus unattractive to Bell, who was in merger discussions with Telus in 2007.

Dumping CDMA in favor of GSM is not unheard of, in recent years. Telstra, Australia's largest cell carrier made the change over in 2006, Brazil's Vivo and Reliance Communications in India are in the process of switching from CDMA to GSM.

GSM Cell phones are considered to be much more customer friendly because an unlocked GSM phone can be can be moved from carrier to carrier just by changing the sim card. Now that people can keep their phone numbers when change carriers, and for the first time since the days of Analog cellular people will be able to keep their phones again. Will the future be friendly? We'll see.

Users of Bag Phones and bricks (and some other users) lose cell phone service

Remember back in the 198o's or the early 1990's when Cell phones were just coming out into the market they were ether a big plastic brick with an antenna or a handset connected to a bag with an antenna. The analog cellular service that made those phones possible will soon be coming to an end.

The Federal Communications Commission has authorized American Cell phone carriers to start shutting down Analog cell phone service starting in March of 2008 in order to reallocate the frequencies used for analog cellular service to Digital cell phones . While most consider the analog cellular phones as antiquated as Windows 3.1, but for many in rural areas analog is the only cellular service available because digital isn't offered or digital coverage is poor.

It's not just users of big old cell phones in the country that will be left without service, about half a million owners of GM vehicles made before 2004 who have the OnStar service will also get disconnected. GM stayed with Analog cellular because it's more carrier agnostic than digital cellular systems. Another half a million household alarm systems will also be affected. These systems have a cellular telephone back up system for when the landline telephone system has failed.

I don't believe the progression of technology is a bad thing, it's government policies such as this that are a bad thing. Bueaucrats who have very little grasp of technological process are the problem, not the technology.